Saturday, July 30, 2016

russian democracy

I was trying to figure out just what the "real" votes in the last russian election would have been without the fraud.

That's actually super easy to do. The core to why my entire election projection math works is that voting patterns change slowly, and that the normal "pattern" of a vote can be easily seen by looking at any set of given elections. To pinpoint when elections become stolen, you simply find the break in that pattern.

To my true surprise; there was no break.

In fact the areas that vote strongly for Putin now, with very high turnouts, were areas that voted strongly to retain the Soviet Union in 1991, with similarly high turnouts. This even works in the non-republics.

In short; areas that seem to be pro-putin by the official numbers, actually are pro-putin.

This is not to say there is no fraud, only that putin has real support in russia, and it is to say that the areas that back him strongest, are areas that'd likely back any "strongman" with this level of support.

In general the pattern holds through all elections. The largest deviation in the pattern would suggest that Putin has more control over the various republics in the caucuses than he "should".

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