Saturday, August 29, 2015

Maximums and Minimums

The Tories are very unlikely to win a majority.

The reasons for voting Tory or voting Not-Tory are just too stable.
Unless there is a radical shift - and there is no sign such a thing is possible, nor has any such radical shift happened since 1988 - The CPC can not win a majority.

In 1988 the "Ballot Question" moved from an amorphous blob of multiple questions, including "Free Trade?" "Re-Elect the Incumbent?" and "Give the NDP a Chance?" to "Free Trade??" "Free Trade?!" and "Free Trade!!"

Without such a radical shift, the currently dominant ballot question - "Time for Change?" has no way for the Tories to recover.

It is possible for them to rebound, to take perhaps 166 seats, which is what they took last time, but since then, we've added so many new seats, that 166 is a minority, not a majority. 

The NDP, and yes, even the Liberals, have a much better chance at a majority. 

There are just too many people who want the CPC defeated that even if the NDP and Liberals split the vote, the CPC does not have enough voters left for a majority.

There is, however, one way they can win a majority without changing the ballot question; Trust. Canadians need to be convinced they can not trust the Liberals or the NDP.

The problem is that despite all the attempts by Harper to make Canadians think just that, Canadians are not buying it. 

The only way Canadians will become convinced that Trudeau and/or Mulcair can not be trusted, is if Trudeau and/or Mulcair make a mistake.

There is no sign of that happening.
In fact, Trudeau has surpassed expectations, and Mulcair has managed to not fall into the 'angryman' trap the Iggy did.

On a personal level, I think the messaging coming out of the Liberal Party in the past half week has been brilliant. Whereas I was convinced I would vote NDP this election, I am just hearing so many positive things from the party that I may actually vote Liberal. 

At this time, I place the Maximums and Minimums for each of the 3 main parties at around the following levels:

CPC - 180-90
NDP - 200-65
LIB - 195-55

The smaller parties also have their own unique limits.

There is, at this time, really no "high profile" Independent who can win his riding (all are male)

Inky Mark in Dauphin, James Ford in Sherwood Park, Scott Andrews in Avalon - all have a small chance of winning, but all are nearly certainly doomed to failure. Brent Rathgeber is the only one who *might* squeak out a victory, but that is terribly unlikely. Therefore:

IND - 1-0

F&D do have a few quality people running. Their best chance is the leader's seat. At this time I see him placing a close second to the winning Liberal, but he could manage a victory. Also a possible win is in Montcalm where the incumbent former NDP MP is running for them. The other incumbent F&D MP is changing ridings and has no hope of winning his new riding. Frankly, chances are none of them win.

F&D - 2-0

The Greens though have perhaps the most interesting possibilities. First is an NDP MP who, up until the writ was dropped, was still an NDP MP. He is running for the Greens in Vimy. His chances of winning are extremely low. The party also has a strong candidate in Guelph, but with the Liberals and NDP doing so well, they might not win. The final seat east of BC that could be won by the Greens is that of Bruce Hyer, MP, but even this is going to be very difficult.

Within BC the Green support is extremely concentrated on the southern half of Vancouver Island. While they could win some Nanaimo area ridings, and even beyond that, the chance of winning anything except the southern three ridings on Vancouver Island are simply low.

May, however, is a lock. I can not see any way, at all, anyone can defeat her. She'll likely win with over 50% of the vote, if not over 65%.

Victoria should go Green at these polling levels, while Esquimalt is just not quite strong enough to be won by the Greens when the NDP is nearing 40% provincewide. 

GRN - 8-1

The seats the Greens could win are shown in the map:

This new maximum, of 8, is far below the 63 I originally projected as a Green maximum months ago. There are 3 key reasons for this

1 - Harper might lose the election. As such anti-Harper voters "need" to vote for a party that "can win" and don't have the "luxury" to vote for the Greens.

2 - After wining Alberta, the NDP just is not as "scary" as it once was, and as such, there is little reason to vote for the actually less "scary" Green Party.

3 - Trudeau is not the fuckup we all thought he would be, and as such, there is no reason for disgruntled Liberals to cast a "protest" vote - against the Liberal Party.

No comments:

Post a Comment